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Environmental Engineering Research 2018;23(4): 406-419. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4491/eer.2017.167
Development of a model to forecast the external migration rate in development projects reflecting city characteristics
Ki-Bum Kim1, Joon Park2, Jee-Won Seo1, Young-Jun Yu3, In-Hwan Hyun4, and Ja-Yong Koo1
1Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Republic of Korea
2International School of Urban Sciences, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Republic of Korea
3Business Development Division, K-water, Deajeon 34350, Republic of Korea
4Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, Dankook University, Yongin 31116, Republic of Korea
Corresponding Author: Ja-Yong Koo ,Tel: +82-2-6490-2866 , Fax: +82-2-5460-5465, Email: jykoo@uos.ac.kr
Received: November 7, 2017;  Accepted: April 9, 2018.
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In planning public service systems such as waterworks, the design population is very important factor. Owing to the limitations of the indirect method, two new models, which take into consideration urban characteristics, were developed to accurately predict external migration rate (EMR), which is an essential component in estimating reliably the design population. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the model values and observed values were 10.12 and 15.58 for the metropolitan cities and counties respectively and were lower compared to RMSE values of 27.31 and 28.79 obtained by the indirect method. Thus, the developed models provide a more accurate estimate of EMR than the indirect method. In addition, the major influencing factors for external migration in counties were development type, ageing index, number of businesses. On the other hand, the major influencing migration factors for cities were project scale, distance to city center, manufacturing size, population growth rate and residential environment. Future medium and long-term studies would be done to identify emerging trends to appropriately inform policy making.
Keywords: City characteristics | Development project | External migration rate | Quantification theory type I | Urban characteristics | Water supply
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