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RESEARCH ARTICLE  [Accepted]
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4491/eer.2017.046
Co-integration and causality analysis of carbon intensity and coal consumption in China
Xing Wang1, Zhongqi Fan1, and Ying Zhang2
1School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
2School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Corresponding Author: Xing Wang ,Tel: +86-13121131699, Email: 2862972308@qq.com
Received: April 11, 2017;  Accepted: July 30, 2017.
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ABSTRACT
A co-integration and causality model was built to conduct a study of the causal relationship between carbon intensity and coal consumption, providing an important basis for the transition to a low-carbon economy. The EG two-step method was employed to study the relationship between carbon intensity and coal consumption in China from 1990-2015, and co-integration and Granger tests were constructed to build co-integration and error correction models for analyzing the interaction between carbon intensity and coal consumption. The results showed that in long run, there is a stable co-integration relationship and a positive correlation between carbon intensity and coal consumption, whereas fluctuations exist at shorter timescales. There is a one-way Granger causality between carbon intensity and coal consumption. Coal consumption can cause positive fluctuations in carbon intensity, and for every 1% increase in coal consumption, carbon intensity increases by 1.7835% with an error correction coefficient of 0.0586, which indicate that the system tends to arrive at a long-term equilibrium state with a strength of 5.86%.
Keywords: Carbon intensity | Coal consumption | Co-integration test | Granger causality | Error correction model
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